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Mickey's Journal

Start a Trading Journal - Start Posting Your T20 Trades Here.
Tips for First Post: Start with personal introduction, share your story, your future plans.
Use Template Prodvided for Recording Trades.
User avatar
immy
Founder
Founder
Posts: 8140
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:46 pm
10

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by immy »

What do you think about the new ranks? ahem, Major Kiravon

And no it won't affect your journals. All premium members are premium members with the same or a bit more access (dashboard). WE will only add more access never take back access. You are a valuable contributor to the forum. We respect your views, wishes and opinions. :)
Opportunity is Nowhere :nerd
"All Successful People are Extremely Hard Working People"
Consistently Successful Trading = Deliberate Practice + Disciplined and Hard Working Approach + Tons of Patience :D

kiravon
Posts: 834
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:08 pm
7

Unread post by kiravon »

Never thought I'd wind up in the British army!

Yes it is an improvement and knowing higher ranks are attainable might
encourage members to post more - hopefully.

It's a pity you can't have a rewards system where members get bonuses
for reaching levels of posting.

I know one site that only releases parts of the course when you have
contributed so many posts. But AIMS is relatively simple and I
don't see how that would work.

But some kind of incentive to post would be a very good idea
for everyone.

But today was a great S1 on USDCHF. I made 50 pips and just opened
a new position targetting TZ1 for a further 20 pips. Hopefully 70 pips
in total.

I found a great new system on Youtube with an 80% win rate. I
immediately improved it and got a 100% win rate, -about ten straight
winners.

I thought if I risked 10% per trade I could buy an island somewhere in a
few weeks!

and for anyone who thinks ' surely trading can't be that easy! '

You're possibly right

The next day I had a run of losers bringing the system down
to around 50% win rate.

But the system did insist that ALL TFs had to be trending same
direction. Never heard that before.

The criteria is that on all TFs price had to be above/below EMA 50.

I also had a couple of very useful MTF indis to back that up.

I believe that part of the system is completely sound.

I also read on a forum that the Aroon indicator was more or less
a licence to print money - but only if you know how to use it.

So I thought I'd better start learning!

Sure enough it will lose you a lot of money in the wrong hands
but with persistence I can see it's potential.

I have other indicators I use to filter it and under the right
circumstances it is one of the better indicators around.

Of course no indicator is profitable in itself.

But with all my backtesting and research it occurred to me
just how subtle indicators can be

We have all been through the phase when we hoped a garish
red or blue arrow appearing would guarantee untold riches.

But there are actually some amazingly accurate indicators
out there

but the secret is knowing how to use them and relating
them to other factors such as price action, support and
resistance, trendlines etc.

There is nothing difficult about Forex trading, - just a lot of little
things you need to be very proficient at.

I lost a trade this week which really surprised me.

A post mortem revealed that whilst everything was indicating
long including MACD lives crossing over, but in my excitement
I missed the obvious! the lines were crossed but MACD was still
moving down!

How could I have missed that.

Everything really needs to line up.

The setup must have a 'feelgood factor' and nothing can be forced
or contrived.

I've also come to realize that nothing I've ever done in Forex has
been wasted.

I previously had great success trading bounces off 50 100 and 200 EMA
and whereas I don't especially do that now I am very aware that these
MAs often have a powerful influence on price as the banks and
institutions seem to put great store on them.

Again, they wont help anyone in themselves as price often completely
ignores them, seesawing up and down through them as if they weren't there.

But sometimes you see a pattern - and it can be a beautiful sight -
where for example all three EMAs converge and price hits them and bounces
off, now if you have a cross of Aroon and MACD then everything starts to
take on meaning. Invariably you will have a winning trade.

I remember once being told my a financial mentor that wealth creation
is all about the lens through which you view the world.

He never did get round to explaining that but its probably true, and
certainly, success in Forex trading is definitely all about the lens
through which you view the charts.

and whilst the Turtle trading experiment proved that trading can be
taught, nevertheless there are many things that can't so easily be taught.

I know in the past I never really knew what I was doing, to a certain
extent I was hoping for the best.

Now when I get rents I am genuinely surprised

because there is no guesswork, everything lines up, everything
is confluent and very compelling

so when the market decides not to keep doing what it had been doing
I am snapped back into the reality that there is an element of randomness.

The market can only be neat and symmetrical for a limited period before
unforeseen circumstances upset the apple cart.

This is the nature of trading.

Its like children, they can be extremely calm and cooperative -
but only for a limited period of time before they run amok!

They can be very capricious and at times quite contrary

Imagine if small children were to start managing the funds in the
major banks and institutions

Would we really notice any difference in the charts?
UCh.PNG
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!

kiravon
Posts: 834
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:08 pm
7

Unread post by kiravon »

So on the subject of looking through Forex lens I try to look
at a potential set up from different perspectives

In the example given there are three set ups

In the first S1 there is no need for the all singing, all dancing
multi coloured indicators

You have Gator sleeping, familiar territory. You have a break of AIMS
and price crosses through Gator which is starting to turn downward.
Confluent is Ewaves as we have a cross of Zero

a textbook set up

but now take a look at set up 3. The usual rules would not help us.
By the time we had a cross of zero you would have missed the move,
price immediately retraced and you would have been stopped out.

set up 2 is even worse as there never was a cross of zero!

But in set ups 2 and 3 on both occasions we had the fancy stochastics
extremely overbought followed by a cross of Aroon indicator exactly
the same time we had the break of Aims. This is extremely powerful
and reliable confluence which with practice can be extremely profitable.

and all very mechanical, nothing especially subjective about it.

Of course Ewaves is brilliant at plotting TZ1. I presume that can be replicated
without Ewaves but Ive never tried because I already have Ewaves.

We are learning all the time. I've never got on very well with stochastics,
momentum or ATR indicators.

But I chanced upon a highly regarded Binary Options program

There was a 22 minute video which seemed quite genuine. no talkover just
'Love Actually' music and the setups on the chart

It was very convincing and I could see it could be applied to Forex. This
indicator just seemed to make sense to me- the way he was using it.
Also a BRILLIANT neat little memo popping up telling you when there is high
impact News due

That could save you a fortune!

But in Forex you can take no one's word for anything. Its good to remember
that reviews and comments are submitted by traders, over 98% of whom
can't trade to save their life.

So I always try an indicator if I like the look of it.

An interesting case in point: The alleged 200% profit per month Forex Invincible
program is universally despised and maligned, particularly the EA, because it

1) blows your account
2) never gives any signals
3) Signals are very late so useless
4) Keeps repainting.

Everyone gave some variation of the above and no one awarded more than one star rating.

I obtained the Pro manual version which I immediately found amazing! especially useful are the
support and resistance lines, just two of them. and sure enough things happen at these key levels,
either a breakout of a bounce.

yes the program has its quirks and unashamedly repaints but only visually!

what do I mean by that?

When you have a signal off the key S/R level you get a prompt alert, timed and with exact level and
direction you should enter.

Absolutely brilliant!

but you don't get the arrow

not yet

Some time later the arrow will appear and be placed at the optimum spot to put the program in the best light.

But its not an issue despite what all the losers say. The alert box will keep popping up to tell you to enter
and thats all that matters. you don't actually need an arrow.

and if the arrow turns up three weeks late so what of it? Its quirky but also an amazingly powerful program.

These complainers are the same people who blow their accounts and then blacken the 'bucket shop' broker
who 'fleeced' them.

Of course there is only so much information we can take in at any given time and we can't include everything
on one template.

In the case of this indicator, if I install it my AIMS boxes all disappear!

So its on another template for another perspective.

But looking at USDCHF earlier I don't think you could go far wrong. currently all Timeframes M1 to W1 are red
- its like a lot of gravity pushing price down. I have left my remaining trade over to next week as I think there is
much more to come, and a few more add ons if everything lines up.
confluence.PNG
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!

kiravon
Posts: 834
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:08 pm
7

S1 and Confluence

Unread post by kiravon »

Apart from my standard AIMS template I have other templates for confluence.

For S1 I use a modified Ewaves which shows divergence and during periods
of very tight congestion it flatlines and the histogram effectively disappears.

Ewaves flatlining is gold dust!

Looking at two set ups - USDCHF and USDJPY on H1 Friday

First USDCHF -

First we note all TFs are beasrish right up to the Weekly, all
are below the 50 EMA

We see three instances of divergence - a very powerful clue as to where price
might be heading!

Aroon and MACD are crossed and MACD is moving down

Then we have a very overbought Stochastics

Finally we get our break of AIMS confluent with a complete cross of QQE ADV buffer
zone with signal line below red.

So far 277 pips and trade is still current
Ewaves 277 pips.PNG

Now USDJPY

The H4 and D1 are bearish and under EMA 50

Firstly we get an extremely overbought Stochastic and then
Ewaves starts to flatline - The histogram disappears - almost.

Then we have a cross of Aroon and MACD to the downside

Finally a decisive cross of QQE ADV buffer zone followed by
a break of AIMS

Exit?
At the first cross up of QQE ADV blue Blue Signal line over red
Aroon is still showing a strong downtrend so ignore it.

But the second time QQE ADV signal crosses up over red we see
that Aroon is also crossing to the upside along with MACD

Also we note FOUR consecutive bars seriously oversold on Stochastics

This is not a coincidence!

Get out for 190 pips!

Unfortunately the market did dip down a bit more before moving up
but we will never get every last penny out of a move

That aside, this trade is a very good example of confluence -
where to enter, where to exit.

Things don't always happen at exactly the same time, patience is
needed.

Also we may get a signal to either enter or exit but if another
indicator contradicts it its usually best to keep your powder dry

An example of this was the first cross of blue over red QQE ADV before exit

It was invalidated by the other indicators

Ordinarily cross of QQE ADV blue over red can be a very serious
exit signal which should never be dismissed lightly.

and with confluence definitely get out very quick!

Ironically, the point of exit was also a reverse break of AIMS to the upside,
one of the original AIMS exit strategies - so just about everything is screaming
to close the trade

Ewaves 190 pips.PNG
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!

baldeagle
Posts: 120
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:21 pm
5

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by baldeagle »

Wish words and an interesting thought process. I think what we are all shooting for is an understanding of the structure of the market. If one or the other indicator helps us so be it! AIMS can help us see this structure or maybe not if we focus too much on the underlying indicators. I think Immy has helped by relating these two things. AIMS forums (a new structure?) can also help us by seeing how others view structure. Out of many.....d

Ed

baldeagle
Posts: 120
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:21 pm
5

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by baldeagle »

For some reason my response did not post (Pedro?) until after your recent comments and referred to yesterdays comments. Haven't had a chance to read today's comments yet!
Ed

kiravon
Posts: 834
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:08 pm
7

Subtle Nuances and Psychology

Unread post by kiravon »

.


If no one understands a word I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised.

It underscores the one fundamental truth

That trading is all about psychology and also its very hard to succeed
consistently.

Trading isn't about indicators, although price itself is only an indicator
if you think about it.

Fundamental news is also only an indicator - and not a very reliable one.

I get back to the garish Red and blue arrow indicators. We all wish it was that simple.
But we all know it really isn't.

Even when you have the best of the best indicators you are not necessarily any better off.
After trialing hundreds of systems and indicators I believe I probably do have just about
the best of the best - but that may not be such a big deal

It is very, very subtle!

So subtle that sometimes you think you are imagining things that aren't really there!

and here's the problem -

if your wife has just left you and you've just lost your job - that doesn't alter your perception
of whether a blue or red arrow has just appeared.

Yes you may be so upset you click the buy button instead of sell, that can happen even when
you are not upset.

but you could actually still carry on trading if all you had to do was buy at blue arrow,
sell at red arrow.

Except trading really isn't that simple.

It does require a great deal of clarity of thought.

Only this weekend have I understood to a much greater extent why traders work out or go running
before trading.

Its something I've got to think about seriously.

Clarity is King!

I'm sure that can't be original - its just a bit too profound!

but seriously, clarity is everything.

I have been overworking a bit the last couple of days and I must take a break
but I've learnt so much

Not so much about indicators, but just how subtle the nuances can be

and precisely why, not just major life changes, but even a bad mood can make
trading nigh on impossible

because it isn't a choice between red or blue arrow.

it's multiple choices, and sometimes we get it, and sometimes it gets murky
and we doubt our judgement, if not our sanity.

The two sample set ups above were just two of scores I've analysed. I am convinced
beyond any shadow of a doubt that my commentary on them is sold and real.

But I also know full well that tomorrow or next week I could re read them
and view them as the ramblings of an imaginative but clueless newbie.

and should I start to view the situation in that negative light -

it will show up in my results! just as sure as night follows day.

I could be on the threshold of becoming a trading genius, or I might indeed
be the Forex version of the village idiot.

This is why trading is all about psychology

Total belief that I have an edge, and total belief that I will succeed.

But things like self doubt and self sabotage do get in the way.

So many times I've read traders analysis of their trades and I really
wonder what planet they're on

it's as if they are imagining things that simply aren't there, or reading
so much into the most subtle difference in candlewick size etc.

But professional traders who are consistently profitable do see very
subtle nuances that are simply lost to the rest of us.

Trading actually is a very subtle skillset.

Ok, trading the news isn't always that subtle, but generally speaking.

The last set up I analysed on cable really set all this thought process in motion.

a nice little winner in hindsight ( aren't they all! )

but it was so darn subtle!

The way it would read is as if I'm looking at a nice move and trying to backfit
the most inconsequential series of events ( or non events ) so that I can say -

'See, all you need to become a genius trader is the ability to read the most
subtle, almost invisible clues that various indicators give ( or appear to give )
and then have the genius ability to connect all the dots to read what the
charts are trying to tell us''

All in a rather self congratulatory sort of way.

When absolutely nothing could be further from the truth

I really believe that since I've renewed my enthusiasm for trading after a bad period
that I am really on to something now.

but I am just so used to the emotional peaks and troughs caused by all such 'aha' moments.

One thing to look for in confluence of indicators is to make sure that they are not actually
using the very same data to give a signal as that's hardly confluence.

The indicators I use don't always agree by any means, and when they all do it is often a
very good sign, and all we need is an edge, not an invincible Holy Grail.

So here is my analysis of a set up I didn't actually take on Cable.

It truly makes perfect sense to me. It is not in any way intended to sound like some
real Pro in order to impress. I really have no interest in that, there is no profit in
self delusion.

Yes this one worked out quite well, and even if it had failed I still believe my reasoning
to be very well founded, but possibly only in my mind.

So we have a congested period on Cable as seen by the lack of histogram on Ewaves.

Price will break out, but which way. No one can actually know that

But are there any clues that indicate where the probabilities lie?

Well of course the biggest indication is that I can actually see that the price went up
so already my analysis is hardly unbiased.

During this congested period there were actually two breaks of AIMS and probably
both would have resulted in a nice profit

I am trying to be as candid as possible here

But I want to present my case for why the first break of AIMS was an invalid set up,
despite likely being profitable.

I don't think it would usually have been that profitable, and anyone taking that
trade would basically have been more lucky than anything else.

I see absolutely no reason to have entered at that break of AIMS

Break of AIMS on it's own is largely inconsequential, it's not a basis for an entry.

But if you are eager to trade the set up you are liable to 'delete' or 'distort' the
information in front of you.

It may be overly simplistic but that's actually why most traders fail, they are not
seeing reality, - they are reading the charts through the lens of fear or greed

So with that in mind, let us assume I am keen to take this set up as a valid entry

We have a break of AIMS and more!! we have confluence! The Aroon indicator,
highly acclaimed as a veritable licence to print money, also is giving a very
decisive cross up blue over red..

Subtle.PNG


and it gets better, further confluence of MACD, the signal line has crossed up over
the blue line

A confluence of three indicators! What are we waiting for?

Simply put, things may not be quite as they appear.

The MACD looks rather flat. actually worse than flat. if you expand the Aroon/MACD
to full page you will see the blue line is flat, and whilst the signal line has crossed up,
under closer zoomed in inspection we see it has just started to turn down again.

so when it hits the blue line one of two things are likely to happen, a cross down
through blue, a very bearish sign obviously, or what has been called a repulsion,
where the signal line sort of bounces off rather like a dodgem car at the fair.
That would mean a continuation, except the direction is flat, so in other words
the MACD is telling us absolutely nothing at all! Yes, it did technically cross, but
its flat, and we don't know what the signal line is about to do. so MACD has
to be discounted at this point.

This only leaves us with QQE ADV, ( an RSI derivative )

Again, at first glance the Blue signal line has crossed up over the buffer zone
and is above the red line. So again, just like initially the MACD appeared to
be signalling Bullish but in reality it wasn't telling us anything at all.

Again, a much closer inspection enlarging the window and using the crosshair
tool we see what we thought was a valid break of buffer zone was an optical illusion
- its what we wanted to seee!!! the signal line has only just managed to break the
upper line and briefly moved sideways but at the very point that Aroon is crossing up
through red, QQE ADV is crossing right down through the buffer zone including
crossing down over red which is a very compelling exit on a bullish move, not an
entry signal to go long!!

So in reality QQE ADV and MACD are confluent negatively!

Are you with me so far?

We patiently wait for the set up to form, finally to our delight ( which is an emotion )
we get our break of AIMS, and that is absolutely confirmed by MACD having
crossed up and QQE ADV having just broken through the central buffer zone.

But that wasn't the reality of the situation at all! as we have seen.

It was what we wanted to see.

So not surprisingly straight after that break of AIMS price reversed to the downside
which was basically want these two indicators were telling us was likely to happen.

Aroon got it wrong on that occasion, it isn't infallible and needs filtering which
we simply didn't get this time.

Had we taken the trade we might have had a lucky win as it did reverse again
to the upside but there was no basis for assuming it would do this.

But now look what happens

A second break of AIMS with the Aroon again crossing up over red, but this time
QQE ADV the signal line is decisively crossed up through central buffer at a nice angle
looking set to continue, and MACD signal line has now turned up, after a repulsion
from 'bumper car' hitting of blue line, this time signalling a continuation to the upside.

so the two break of AIMS were really quite different. The first, price immediately
reversed, the second went on splendidly for about 100 pips and here is the truly happy
ending to this interminable yarn - at the peak of the move the QQE ADV crossing down
over red. Yes, only one exit signal but a very powerful one. so we could have got out
leaving almost nothing on the table!

So why would we conveniently have acted on this signal this time when previously
we ignored it when it was variance with the other indicators?

Good question, and there is actually a very good answer too.

If that downward cross had come in isolation early on in the move I would certainly
have stayed with the other two more Bullish indicators

but after such an impulsive 100 pip move, nearly all Bullish blue candles, to see
QQE ADV suddenly reverse down through red spells only sudden death!

Seriously, I would have got out in an instant in that situation, despite Aroon
and MACD seemingly blissfully unaware that anything was amiss.

Again with familiarity, the QQE ADV can get you in and out of trades with
precision timing, but as always, you have to know how to use it, and when
to use it.


But you see what I mean about subtle nuances? just a little bit of bad psychology and
it would have been very easy to have missed all the clues and taken that first break of AIMS

and isn't this unquestionably the most boring post I've ever written?

Forex Trading in many ways is boring. That's why so many opt for Binary options it's exciting.
Its glorified gambling.

I believe all the above is more or less the type of thought process that is essential to even
have a chance of success in this game

There is no quick fix, no red or blue arrows.

Yes, most mentors are great marketeers and also try to keep enthusiasm high - and that's great.

I'm enthusiastic about trading. I'm always creating new templates, always tweaking systems
and I love all that.

But there is a lot of tedious hard work involved to really get it right on a consistent basis.

That's why so few stay the course on these forums, even after paying etc. when they find out
that the superficial, fun approach isn't consistently profitable they move on to find a 'better'
system somewhere else.

Which is also why out of so many hundreds, only a tiny minority start a journal and keep at it.

Its just not a fun thing to do.

Yet it is the single most profitable thing they could do.
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Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
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User avatar
immy
Founder
Founder
Posts: 8140
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:46 pm
10

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by immy »

Hey, these ranks are bit too real aren't they? I think not many will like it. Who wants to end up in British army? Maybe just my childhood dream of being a military office, captain immy.. ha I'd love to fly a jet plane though. (without pressing the red buttons on the lever, ever)

Micky, if you don't like the new ranks please let me know. We'll switch back to previous. :)
Opportunity is Nowhere :nerd
"All Successful People are Extremely Hard Working People"
Consistently Successful Trading = Deliberate Practice + Disciplined and Hard Working Approach + Tons of Patience :D

User avatar
immy
Founder
Founder
Posts: 8140
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:46 pm
10

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by immy »

I feel that I might have done a huge injustice in my previous post. I completely forgot to mention the very thing that made me want to write a reply. This post is NOT the most boring one Mickey. I read it and wrote about it, criticising some admiring other parts of it and drew a conclusion for myself. Nothing judgemental. I guess what i'm trying to say is that I enjoyed the read. :) You should write a book
Opportunity is Nowhere :nerd
"All Successful People are Extremely Hard Working People"
Consistently Successful Trading = Deliberate Practice + Disciplined and Hard Working Approach + Tons of Patience :D

baldeagle
Posts: 120
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:21 pm
5

Re: Mickey's Journal

Unread post by baldeagle »

I second the book idea. You have a gift for putting your thoughts (and mine) into words. My main discipline problem is Wishing (emotion) for a setup

I tried to duplicate your (H1?) chart on my Oanda platform (Daily Candle, NY Close) Unfortunately my AIMS box was a long straight rectangle one over 27 hours, troubling. No breakout until your second breakout. I guess the bearish engulfing candle would not have formed until after your pending order for the first breakout of the AIMS box was filled? So even price action would have been late. The only thing that I see that is troubling is the small candles that preceded your first breakout. Not much momentum.

Thanks again for your thought provoking posts.

Ed